GOP front-runner and four times-indicted Donald Trump will not be physically present at Wednesday evening's first 2024 presidential primary debate. But he'll be there anyway as the troubled candidate remains the dominant figure – and issue – of the nominating contest.
Typically, early debates are a chance for poll-laggers to make an impression, either by delivering a well-placed zinger at a top-tier candidate or shining with a smart response to a question. The front-runners tend to have targets on their backs, which could result in a weakened position or a stronger one, if they handle attacks from primary rivals well.
But in the case of the debate in Milwaukee on Wednesday, the participants are in an awkward, perhaps no-win situation: The front-runner won't even be there, and the rest of the field can't attack him without alienating the very voters they'd need to sew up the nomination, should the legally imperiled Trump be forced to suspend his campaign.
Trump is "going to be the huge, spray-tanned elephant in the room. He's going to be what everybody is thinking about, even though he's not there," says Dave Cohen, a political science professor at the University of Akron.
That means the eight candidates who have qualified for the debate – Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson – have few choices, and none is terribly appealing.
They can attack Trump, defend him or try to ignore him – which debate moderators are not likely to let pass, Cohen says. None of those approaches helps a candidate emerge as a better choice than Trump without angering Trump's rank-and-file loyalists.
"They're in a difficult spot, strategically," says Stephen Smith, professor at the School of Politics and Global Studies at Arizona State University. But "it's one they've earned," he adds.
Only a few have been willing to criticize Trump directly, and it's not appeared to have endeared them to GOP primary voters.
Christie – who worked on Trump's transition team before turning on him – has been the most aggressive in his attacks on Trump, saying the former president lacks the "character" to serve in the Oval Office and needling Trump for skipping the debate, which Christie last week called "completely disrespectful" to GOP voters.
The tactic – essentially making himself the marquee foil of Trump – is based on the gamble that if Trump ends up leaving the race, Christie will emerge as the most prominent truth-teller and default new front-runner.
It's not going so well, so far: National polls have Christie in the low single digits. A recent Des Moines Register/NBC poll in Iowa puts Christie in sixth place with 5% support among GOP caucus-goers.
Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson – who arguably on paper has the most complete and traditional resume for a Republican presidential contender – is also polling in the low single digits, his criticism of Trump not moving the needle at all.
Former Vice President Mike Pence has stepped up his criticism of Trump's behavior – saying the former president asked him to put him above the Constitution by asking him to refuse to certify the 2020 election results – but hasn't made it as personal.
Pence recently said he was not aware of any "broad-based effort" to declassify records before Trump left office, undercutting the former president's claim that the classified documents he is accused of taking and improperly keeping at his Mar-a-Lago resort were, in fact, declassified. But Pence has also been reluctant to say Trump should be treated like any other politician who has been convicted of a felony – meaning, ousted from office.
"I think that needs to be left to the American people. Look, let’s let the former president have his day in court. Let’s maintain a presumption of innocence in this matter," Pence told ABC on Sunday.
Former U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley – the only woman who will be onstage Wednesday night – has cautioned that Trump's legal troubles could cost Republicans the general election. She hasn't directly criticized the former president but didn't shy away earlier this month by reminding people of how much worse Trump's situation is getting.
"Like most Americans, I’m tired of commenting on every Trump drama. I’ve lost track of whether this indictment is the third or fourth or the fifth," Haley said during an appearance on “Good Morning New Hampshire” radio show with Jack Heath – before the fourth indictment out of Georgia’s Fulton County.
Others have responded to questions about Trump with attacks on the criminal justice system and its prosecutors themselves.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is running a distant second to Trump in most polls, decried the "weaponization of government" after Trump's third indictment – though he conceded he had not actually read the document. DeSantis also acknowledged recently that the 2020 election was not stolen, telling NBC "of course he lost" when asked about Trump's discredited claims of a fraudulent 2020 contest – a comment not likely to endear him to Trump's most devoted supporters.
Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina called the recent indictment of Trump "un-American and unacceptable. We need a better system than that."
Tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who has edged upward in a couple of state polls, has walked a similar line.
"These are politicized persecutions through prosecution,” he said at a town hall meeting last week. “It would be a lot easier for me if Donald Trump were not in this primary, but that is not how I want to win this election," he added.
And North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum is just deflecting the matter entirely.
"I do trust the voters. ... They want presidential elections to be about the future, a vision for the future," Burgum told NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday after being asked about Trump's troubles.
In reality, it is the candidates not named Trump who will have the most to prove or explain Wednesday night, analysts say. DeSantis, whose campaign has been flailing, might need to explain why he suggested some Republicans backing Trump are "listless vessels" – a cringe-worthy similar remark to 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton reference to the "basket of deplorables" in Trump's base.
As the front-runner among the also-rans, DeSantis will likely take the heaviest rhetorical artillery from the GOP field at the debate. Most of the rest will be struggling to get out of single digits – with the possible exception of Burgum, who is still trying to get the American public to recognize his name.
Trump, meanwhile, said he plans to counter-program with the airing of a taped one-on-one interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson. Thursday – a day when the political news would typically be dominated by post-debate analysis – Trump will be the star player in an unprecedented legal and political drama, turning himself in for processing at a Fulton County jail.
"He's cutting right into the shadow of the debate" with that timing, Smith says. As he undoubtedly will during the debate itself.
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二 | 정선군 평생학습 런케이션... 사할린 동포와 고려인 가족, 지역과 사람 잇는 배움과 쉼의 시간 마련사할린 동포와 고려인 가족들이 '아리랑의 고장' 정선을 찾아 특별한 1박 2일을 보냈다.강원도 정선군에서 진행되는 '평생학습 런케이션-정선에서 배우며 머물다' 프로그램에 사할린 동포와 고려인 가족 3가족, 10여 명이 참여해 지난 8월 22일부터 23일까지 정선의 자연과 문화, 음식, 사람을 경험하는 시간을 가졌다.이번 프로그램은 지역의 자원과 평생 학습을 결합한 배움·쉼 패키지로 마련됐다. 참가자들은 정선의 로컬 푸드를 직접 체험하고 숲에서 '힐링'의 시간을 보내는 한편, 정선의 문화와 아리랑을 만나며 지역의 역사와 정서를 이해하는 시간을 가졌다. 특히 참가자들에게 이번 여행은 단순한 관광을 넘어 고향과 고향을 잇는 의미 있는 만남이 됐다.
▲ 아리랑 박물관 관람 디아스포라 아리랑 자료를 보고 있는 참가자
ⓒ 디자인 여름
사할린 동포이자 국적회복자인 이경남씨(화성 거주)는 "가족과 함께 음식을 만들고 다양한 체험을 할 수 있어서 너무 좋았다"며 "아리랑박물관에서 여러 지역의 아리랑을 들어보았는데, 어린 시절 사할린에서 어른들이 부르시던 아리랑이 경상도 아리랑과 닮아 있었다"고 말했다. 그는 이어 "어른들이 부르시던 아리랑이 떠올라 뭉클하고 감동적이었다"며 "겨울마다 태국이나 베트남으로 휴가를 갔는데, 올겨울에는 정선에서 보내고 싶다"고 소감을 전했다.안산에 거주하는 고려인 김엘레나씨는 "너무 아름다운 풍경과 산들, 맛있는 음식과 친절한 사람들 덕분에 행복한 시간을 보냈다"며 "정선의 풍경이 너무 아름다워서 봄, 여름, 가을, 겨울의 정선을 모두 보고 싶다"고 말했다.사할린 동포 나탈리아씨(안산 거주) 역시 정선의 자연에 깊은 인상을 받았다. "강원도에 오면 강릉이나 속초처럼 늘 바닷가를 찾았는데, 이렇게 아름다운 곳이 있는 줄 몰랐다"며 "사할린의 산들과 비슷해서 고향에 온 것처럼 편안하고 좋았다. 앞으로 더 자주 방문하고 싶다"고 말했다.이번 방문이 더욱 특별한 이유는 아리랑을 매개로 한 동포들의 만남이라는 데 있다.아리랑은 한반도를 넘어 러시아와 중앙아시아 등지로 흩어져 살아온 고려인과 동포들에게 민족의 기억과 정체성을 이어주는 노래로 전해져 왔다. 타국에서 살아가면서도 조상들의 노래를 지켜 부르며 한민족으로서의 기억을 이어온 이들에게, 아리랑의 고장 정선을 직접 찾는 일은 각별한 의미를 갖는다.정선은 오랜 세월 지역의 삶과 자연 속에서 정선아리랑을 이어온 곳이다. 이번 동포 가족들의 방문은 정선아리랑을 통해 서로 다른 공간에서 살아온 사람들이 하나의 기억으로 연결되는 자리가 됐다. 정선군의 자연과 문화, 음식과 사람을 경험한 동포 가족들이 다시 정선을 찾고, 계절마다 변화하는 정선의 모습을 만나며 정선이 따뜻한 '고향'으로 기억되기를 기대한다.
▲ 정선가리왕산 전망대 올림픽 유산에 대한 학습과 정선의 빼어난 경관을 보는 뜻깊은 시간이였다.
ⓒ 디자인 여름
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